10.4: Presidential Primaries

Although most American elections follow a similar pattern, presidential elections are exceptional in a number of ways. Timing is one: whereas most primary elections are held on a single day, the presidential primary stretches over several months. Each state, as well as the District of Columbia and several U.S. territories, holds its own primary. Typically the first primaries are held in January or February of the election year, although the primary campaign itself begins long before that. (The first candidate to join the 2020 Democratic presidential primary announced his candidacy in July 2017, more than three years before the general election.)

Presidential candidates who win or (in some states) place highly in primaries earn delegates to their party’s national convention, where the nominee will be determined by a vote of delegates. Finishing strong in the early states is important for candidates striving to prove they have what it takes to compete. This is why politicians from all over the country have traditionally flocked to the early-primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire to lay the groundwork for their campaigns. The elongated primary calendar helps a party whittle down a large list of presidential hopefuls until a single nominee emerges. In 2016, 17 Republicans mounted presidential campaigns, but by February when the first actual votes were cast only 12 were still running, and by early May only Donald Trump remained in the race. In 2020, of the 29 Democrats competing for their party’s presidential nomination, only 11 made it to the first state contest in early February and only Joe Biden was left standing by early April.

States differ in their approach to presidential primaries. Most hold a normal election (called a primary) in which voters show up at a polling place, wait in line, and cast their ballots. A minority of states instead hold a caucus, a meeting at which campaign representatives attempt to recruit supporters before a vote is held. Caucuses require more time from would-be participants and are more complicated to administer. The 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses were so convoluted that the caucus organizers struggled to overcome numerous mathematical errors and technical glitches, delaying the results for three days. Following this debacle, the Democratic Party ended Iowa’s “first-in-the-nation” status in the Democratic primary calendar and made South Carolina the site of their first primary in 2024.

Before 1972, state presidential primaries were nonbinding: winning could demonstrate a candidate’s popular support but did not guarantee votes at the national convention. Hubert Humphrey, the 1968 Democratic nominee for president, chose not to compete in any state primaries. His controversial nomination (and eventual loss to Republican Richard Nixon) prompted both parties to switch to binding primaries.

Humphrey was the last major-party presidential nominee not to win a state primary until 2024. After nearly sweeping the primaries, President Joe Biden withdrew from the race less than a month before the convention due to his ailing health. His vice president, Kamala Harris, was nominated in his stead. Harris’s nomination, like Humphrey’s was controversial, with critics arguing that stronger nominees would have emerged from competitive primaries.