The scientific method is a process used by individuals, particularly scientists, to analyze some aspect of the world. We offer three models of the scientific method that start from simple to complex. The reason for presenting three models is to demonstrate how we can start with a core concept and extend it.
Figure \(\PageIndex{1}\): Visualization of a simple model of scientific method
Model 1: Observation-Theory-Data: Our first model focuses on the core components of the scientific method: observation, theory, and data. The scientific method first begins with observations of the world around us, a response to stimuli. Stimuli are objects that attract our attention. For example, as we walk towards the beach from the parking lot, we may see a lot of beachgoers eagerly staring into the ocean. The behavior of the crowd is a stimulus because it draws our attention. Our response to this stimulus is to consider why the beachgoers are acting this way. Thus, our observations may lead to questions. Are there surfers in the water? Did someone spot a school of dolphins or a shark? Is someone in need of help or is the Coast Guard conducting a rescue operation? In order to understand the stimulus or our response, we must make connections between two variables.
The connections that we make form the foundation of a theory, or the answer to our questions. In other words, a theory is an explanation of the relationship we observed between two variables. For example, we may observe a tweet about foreign policy from the President of the United States. Shortly after, we may see an increase in the stock prices of aerospace companies. So, we form a theory about presidential statements and the economy, connecting these two variables with one another. With our theory in mind, we can proceed to explore it by collecting data. Continuing with our example, we may collect data of presidential tweets and stock market prices for the first two years of the presidency to see what the relationship is between these two variables.
Figure \(\PageIndex{2}\): Visualization of an intermediate model of scientific method
Model 2: Observation-Theory-Hypothesis-Data: Our second model builds on the previous model by adding a hypothesis. A hypothesis is a statement that asserts the direction of the relationship between two variables. Hypothesis follows theory because a theory proposes that there is a relationship between two variables, while a hypothesis states what the relationship is. For example, we may observe that voters seem supportive of a challenger to the incumbent president. So, why are voters eagerly supporting a would-be president instead of the actual president? It could be that voters feel the country is not going in the right direction, so they believe a change in presidential leadership will put the country in the right direction. Thus, we have a theory of presidential leadership and voter behavior. A hypothesis that follows from the theory could be: if incumbent presidential leadership is erratic, then voters are more likely to vote for the challenger in the upcoming presidential election. To examine this hypothesis, we would collect data on the erraticism of the incumbent president and data on the votes cast in the election.
Figure \(\PageIndex{3}\): Visualization of a complex model of scientific method
Model 3: Observation-Theory-Hypothesis-Data-Analysis-Update: Our third model continues to build on the previous models by adding analysis and update. Analysis is an examination of the collected data. We can analyze data using methods that are appropriate for the data collected. Two principal methods of data analysis are qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative data analysis is explored in Chapter 7 and quantitative data analysis is examined in Chapter 8.
The process consists of six stages: observe, articulate theory, propose hypotheses, collect data, analyze data with respect to hypotheses, and revise theory based on findings.
Observe is the first stage of the scientific method. By observing individuals, organizations, and institutions interacting in the real world, we begin to learn about the nature of their interests and the degree of their interaction. For example, say it is the holiday season, and I observe how my partisan identification differs from my parents. I could discuss this observation with my parents but avoid the conversation because it may ruffle some feathers at the holiday dinner table. So instead, I ask myself “Why?”
By asking myself “Why?”, this leads to the second stage of the scientific method: articulate a theory. Recall that a theory is an explanation of how one variable has a relationship with another variable. Using my observation from above, I have one variable: partisan identification. Now, what is the other variable that can help us articulate a theory? Here, there can be a multitude of reasons, but I could theorize that partisan identification is a function of technology use. So, I have articulated a theory that technology use has a relationship with partisan identification.
After the articulation of the theory, the next step in this process is to develop a hypothesis. Again, I theorized a relationship between technology use and partisan identification. A potential hypothesis derived from this theory is that an increased use of technology is likely to affect what political party individuals identify with.
The next step in this process will be to find identify and collect the appropriate data I will need to help me test my hypothesis. One way to do this might be to interview people about their use of technology, how often they use it. For the second variable, I would ask a question about what party they identify with. Another way to collect the data I need is to find already existing datasets that have collected this information. After collecting this information, I can then analyze the data to see if there is an empirical relationship that exists between technology use and partisan identification.
After analyzing the data, multiple outcomes can be possible. I might find that partisan identification is linked to the use of technology, and I would be able to conclude that the evidence does support my theory. On the other hand, it is also possible that I do not find a relationship between the two variables and the evidence does not support my theory. This next step would then require me to update my theory or my hypothesis, leading me to restart the cycle again.
There are multiple stages to the scientific model. Individuals form questions and answers to those questions by first observing the world around them. Derived from the answer is the hypothesis, which will then allow individuals to test their theory. Providing evidence of the theory may require collecting data and analyzing the data. While there are multiple stages, it is possible that not all researchers will partake in each stage; thus, the presentation of multiple models of the scientific method from the simple to more complex.
