4.3: Generating Hypotheses from Theories

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Learning Objectives

By the end of this section, you will be able to:

Remember the definition of hypothesis
Understand how a hypothesis is derived from a theory
Apply a model hypothesis
Analyze increasingly complex hypotheses
Evaluate statements to determine if they are hypotheses or not
Create a hypothesis

A hypothesis is an if-then statement that is derived from a theory. While a theory states that there is a relationship between two concepts or objects of interest, a hypothesis declares the values of the two concepts and how the change in the value of one affects the change in the value of the second object. For instance, a hypothesis derived from the theory that elected officials are more responsive to voters during campaigns might be that during the campaign season elected officials are more likely to host town hall meetings as compared to when the candidate is not running for reelection.

Generating hypotheses from theories can be a difficult task because concepts need to be operationalized into objects that can be measured. Recall that theories must be falsifiable. A hypothesis allows us to test the theory, providing evidence in support of our theory. Additional examples of hypotheses include:

In a comparison of US citizens, those that incur a higher cost of voting will be less likely to vote in each election.
In a comparison of US states, those that have a more professionalized legislature are more likely to produce complex laws.
In a comparison of countries, those that have developed natural resources are more likely to have autocratic rulers.
In a comparison of political leaders, those that have diverse economies are more likely to support climate change policies.

The anatomy of a hypothesis is that it includes the units of observation, one value of the independent variable, and one value of the dependent variable. For example, let’s break down one of the examples from above. “In a comparison of US states” the term US states would serve as the units of observation. In the part “a more professionalized legislature”, the term professionalized (or professionalization) would serve as the independent variable. And finally, in part “more likely to produce complex law”, the term complex (or complexity) would serve as the dependent variable.