12.2: Odds of Divorce

Odds of Divorce 

First, today's married couples tend to remain married. Second, and this is more important, the national risk of divorce is different from your personal risk of divorce in one crucial factor-you have very little influence in the national rates and a great deal of influence in your on marriage quality and outcome. You and your spouse have much control over your marital experience, how you enhance it, how you protect it from medical, economic, and other stressors that can undermine it, and finally how you maintain it.

Family scientists refer to marital entropy as the principle based on the belief that if a marriage does not receive preventative maintenance and upgrades it will move towards decay and break down. Hearing an evening news report on national divorce trends has much less impact on your marriage than a preventative weekend away together to recharge your romance and commitment which is a marital maintenance strategy designed to combat marital entropy. A proactive and assertive approach to your marital quality is far more influential than most other factors leading to divorce.

It is true that the longer a couple is married the lower their odds of divorce. Figure  shows a visual depiction of how the odds of divorce decline over time. The first 3 years of marriage require many adjustments for newlyweds. Often special mention is the process of transitioning into a cohesive couple relationship with negotiated financial, sexual, social, emotional, intellectual, physical, and spiritual rules of engagement. Most couples have many of these negotiations in place by years 7-10. Anyone can divorce at any time in a marriage. Since longevity is often associated with the arrival of children, accumulation of wealth, establishment of acceptable social status (being married is still highly regarded as a status), and the buffering of many of life's daily stressors; the average couple finds it difficult and too costly to divorce, even though some features of the marriage are less than desirable (See Levinger's Model below).

Figure 3. Estimated Odds of Marriage Lasting Based on Number of Years Married

Using social exchange theory as a basis for understanding why couples stay married or divorce, you begin to see that spouses consider their cost-to-benefits, rewards-punishments, and/or pros-cons in their decisions. Remember that social exchange theory claims that society is composed of ever present interactions among individuals who attempt to maximize rewards while minimizing costs. 

Basically, human beings are rational creatures, capable of making sound choices when the pros and cons of the choice are understood. This theory uses a formula to measure the choice making processes: (REWARDS-COSTS)=OUTCOMES or (What I get out of it-What I lose by doing it)=My decision. In 1979 Levinger and Moles published a chapter in a scholarly anthology wherein they discussed the rational choices made by spouses who were considering divorcing or remaining married. It's been referred to as “Levinger's Model.” Levinger's Model looks like this in the formula: Attractions Barriers)+/- Alternative Attractions= My decision to stay married or divorce. Look at Table  below to see an example of how Levinger's Model clarifies the choices people might make and their perceived rewards and costs.

Levinger's Model of Rational Choice in Divorce

Table 2: Levinger's Model of Rational Choice in Divorce
(Attractions) Magnets=Rewards that stem from being married	(Barriers) Walls=Punishments or losses you'd face if you divorced. You'd have to climb over these walls if you divorced	(Alternative Attractions) Lures Away From Your Marriage=Something attractive that you could obtain if you were unmarried
Positive social status	Loss of positive status and new negative status-stigma of being 'divorced'	Liberated status with freedom to explore relationships with others
Wealth Accumulation	Division of wealth (at least by half)	Opportunity to be disentangled with family costs
Co-parenting	Co-parenting with ex-spouse, never truly free from this role	Share custody alleviating some degree of burden of parenting
Sex	Much less availability and predictablility of sexual partner	Possibility of new sexual partner
Health Support and Stress Buffer	Loss of health support and additional stress from divorce process	Different types of stressors and relief from pre-divorce stresses
Stay Married Formula (+Attractions)	(+)Barriers	(-)Lures
Divorce Formula (-Attractions)	(-)Barriers	(+)Lures

In Table 2 you see that Levinger's Attractions are simply the magnets or rewards that stem from being married. These are the payoffs or rewards that come from being married and include positive social status, wealth accumulation, co-parenting, sexual intercourse, and the health support and stress buffer that marriage typically brings to each spouse.

Levinger's Barriers are simply the costs or punishments that might be incurred if a married person chose to divorce. These might include losing all the attractions and magnets, changing to a negative status, suffering a division of wealth, co-parenting at a distance and without same-household convenience, experiencing a change/decline in sexual frequency and predictability, and losing the health and stress buffer that married couples enjoy (even unhappily married couples experience some measure of this buffer).

Levinger's Alternative Attractions are basically lures or something appealing that a now-married spouse might find rewarding if they go ahead and divorce. These might include liberation and the freedom that comes from being single (albeit divorced) and newly available on the market, a financial disentanglement from ex-spouse and at times child care (especially common view held among men who often share custody but pay less in the end for their children), alleviation of parenting when children are with other parent, freedom from unwanted sexual demands and/or possibility of new sexual partner or partners, abandonment of overbearing stressors from marriage.

I personally have been studying the family for more than 20 years and have seen trends in divorce that reflect the collective society according to Levinger's model. I've also seen the cases of my personal friends where in one case the mother of four left the marriage and let her Ex have full custody, full parental responsibility, and full homemaking under stressful psychological and emotional duress for the children. In her case, the lure of online Dungeons and Dragons gamer with evening real-world roles and escapades offered her an appealing alternative to her perceived mundane mothering routines.

I've also seen the case of a father of three who left the marriage and forfeited any responsibility, refusing to pay court ordered child support and refusing to spend time with his children (The state garnished his wages). In his case he had a series of girlfriends, a new truck, and a no-rent bedroom in his mother's home. This while his ex-wife was forced onto welfare and has not left poverty these last 14 years since the divorce. The lure for this man was a second childhood of pleasures and self-interests. Generally speaking there are some that find high school reunions, online match making, and the singles social scene to be an appealing lure. Others are more interested in alleviating undesirable and at times even hostile marital living conditions.

Look at the last two rows in Table . They show how you can use a formula to understand the propensity a couple has to divorcing or staying married. In the Stay Married formula, the Attractions and Barriers are high while the lures or low. Translated into Social Exchange thinking-there are many reward in the marriage with many barriers that would prove more punishing if a spouse wanted to divorce. At the same time there are few lures that might draw a spouse away from their marriage.

The divorce formula is also revealing. Attractions are low, barriers are low, and lures are high. In other words-there are few rewards from being married, low barriers or low perceived punishments from divorcing, with high lures to draw a spouse away from the marriage. One would expect satisfied couples to have the stay married formula while dissatisfied couples would have the divorce formula. By the way, the formula is only descriptive (it tells the state of the union) and not predictive (it cannot tell you what the couple might do). Some with the divorce formula in place remain married for years. A few with the stay married formula become dissatisfied and begin focusing on lures.

One Social Exchange principle that clarifies the rational processes experienced by couples is called the concept of equity. Equity is a sense that the interactions are fair to us and fair to others involved by the consequences of our choices. For example, why is it that women who work 40 hours a week and have a husband who works 40 hours per week do not perform the same number of weekly hours of housework and childcare?

Scientists have surveyed many couples to find the answer. Most often, it boils down to a sense of fairness or equity. Because she defines it as her role to do housework and childcare, while he doesn't, because they tend to fight when she does try to get him to perform housework, and because she may think he's incompetent, they live with an inequitable arrangement as though it were equitable (don't get me started on the evidence that supports men sharing the actual roles of housekeepers and childcare providers-see Joseph Pleck, “Working Wives/ Working Husbands” Sage Pub, CA).

 

Key Points

• Personal divorce risk depends more on how a couple maintains their relationship than on national divorce rates.

• Marital entropy: marriages decline without intentional maintenance; proactive effort strengthens stability.

• Divorce risk is highest early in marriage (first 3 years) and decreases as couples establish routines and accumulate shared responsibilities (children, finances, status).

• Social Exchange Theory: people stay or leave based on weighing rewards vs. costs.

• Levinger’s Model explains divorce decisions using:

  • Attractions (rewards of marriage)

  • Barriers (costs of divorce)

  • Alternative Attractions (lures outside the marriage)

• Stay Married pattern: high attractions, high barriers, low lures.

• Divorce pattern: low attractions, low barriers, high lures.

• Equity matters: relationships feel stable when interactions seem fair, even if actual workloads are unequal.