12.3: Predictors of Divorce

What Predicts Divorce in the US? 

Years of research on divorce yielded a few common themes of what puts a couple at more or less risk of divorce. Before we discuss those factors let me point out an uncomfortable truth-all of us are at risk of dying as long as we are alive, likewise, all of us are at risk of divorcing as long as we are married. But, the presence of divorce risks does not imply the outcome of divorce. There is a geography factor of US divorce.

Divorce rates tend to be lower in the North East and Higher in the West. Nevada typically has the highest of all state divorce rates, but is often excluded from comparison because of the “Vegas marriage” or “Vegas Divorce” effect. Figure  shows the Higher divorce rate in Arkansas, US average, and Lower divorce rate in Pennsylvania.

Figure . United States Divorce Rates per 1,000 Population 1990-2006

Figure . Factors Associated With Divorce and/or Long-term High Quality Marriage

Simply enduring the difficult times of marriage is associated with remaining married. Most of the factors that contribute to divorce lie to a great extent within the realm of influence and choice had by the individual. For example, waiting until at least your 20^th birthday to marry lowers divorce risks tremendously. In fact the best ages to marry are 25-29 (interestingly, the U.S. median age at marriage for men and women falls within this age group). Being younger than 19 years old at your first marriage is extremely risky. Why?

Basically the explanation is that most younger couples are disadvantaged economically, socially, and emotionally, and their circumstances have accompanying hardships that would not be present had they waited to age 25 (for example, had they graduated college first and prepared themselves for the labor force and for the emotional complexity of marriage). Many scientific studies indicate that there is a refining process of social and intellectual capacities that is not reached until around age 26 and those who marry young exchange their prime years of self-discovery for marriage. Another major individual choice-related factor is marrying because of an unplanned pregnancy. Most babies born in the U.S. are born to a married couple. But, today about 40% are born to single mothers of all ages. Even though many of these single mothers marry the baby’s father, numerous studies have indicated that they have a higher likelihood of their marriage ending in divorce.

Many individuals struggle to completely surrender their single status. They mentally remain on the marriage market in case “someone better than their current spouse comes along.” Norval Glenn argued that many individuals see marriage as a temporary state while they keep an eye open for someone better. “More honest vows would often be “as long as we both shall love” or “as long as no one better comes along.” Glenn gets at the core of the cultural values associated with risks of divorcing.⁴ These values have changed over time. As more people wanted to divorce, divorce laws became more lax and as the laws loosened, more people were able to divorce.

Robert and Jeanette Lauer are a husband-wife team who studied commitment and endurance of married couples. They identified 29 factors among couples who had been together for 15 years or more. They found that both husbands and wives reported as their number one and two factors that their spouse was their best friend and that they liked their spouse as a person.⁵ The Lauers also studied the levels of commitment couples had to their marriage. The couples reported that they were in fact committed to and supportive of, not only their own marriage, but marriage as an institution. Irreconcilable differences are common to marriage, and the basic strategy to deal with them is to negotiate as much as is possible, accept the irresolvable differences, and finally live happily with them.

Family Scientists have borrowed from the physics literature a concept called entropy which is roughly defined as the principle that matter tends to decay and reduction, toward its simplest parts. For example, a new car if parked in a field and ignored would eventually decay and rot. A planted garden if left unmaintained would be overrun with weeds, pests, and yield low if any crop. Couples who take ownership of their marriage and who realize that marriage is not bliss and that it often requires much work, experience more stability and strength when they nurture their marriage. They treat their marriage like a nice car and become committed to preventing breakdowns rather than waiting to repair them. These couples read and study experts like Gottman, Cherlin, Popenoe, and others who have focused their research on how to care for the marriage, acknowledging the propensity relationships have to decay if unattended.

A positive outlook for your marriage as a rewarding and enjoyable relationship is a realistic outlook. Some couples worry about being labeled naïve if they express the joys and rewards their marriage brings to their lives. Be hopeful and positive on the quality and duration of your marriage, because the odds are still in your favor. You've probably seen commercials where online matchmaking Websites strut their success in matching people to one another. There have been a few criticisms of online marital enhancement services, but millions have used them. Along, with DVD's, talk CDs, self-help books, and seminars there are many outlets for marital enhancement available to couples who seek them. Very few know that there is now a Website that offers support to marrieds who want to be proactive and preventative in their relationship marriage.eharmony.com/.

“Doomed, soaring divorce rates, spousal violence, husbands killing wives, decline of marriage,” and other gloomy headlines are very common on electronic, TV, and print news stories. The media functions to disseminate information and its primary goal is to make money by selling advertising. The media never has claimed to be random or scientific in their stories. They don't really try to represent the entire society with every story. In fact, media is more accurately described as biased by the extremes, based on the nature of stories that are presented to us the viewers.

Many media critics have made the argument for years that the news and other media use fear as a theme for most stories, so that we will consume them. As you observed above, most in the US choose marriage and most who are divorced will eventually marry again.

True, marriage is not bliss, but it is a preferred lifestyle by most US adults. From the Social Exchange perspective, assuming that people maximize their rewards while minimizing their losses, marriage is widely defined as desirable and rewarding. There are strategies individuals can use to minimize the risks of divorce (personal level actions). Table 3 below lists 10 of these actions.

Ten Actions Individuals can Take to Minimize Odds of Divorce

Table : Ten Actions Individuals Can Take to Minimize the Odds of Divorce
Actions Individuals Can Take
1. Wait until at least 20s to marry. Avoid marrying as a teenager
2. Don't marry out of duty to a child. Avoid marrying just because she got pregnant. Pregnancy is not mate-selection process we discussed in the pairing-off chapter.
3. Become proactive by maintaining your marriage with preventive efforts designed to avoid breakdowns. Find books, seminars, and a therapist to help you both work out the tough issues.
4. Never cohabit if you think you might marry. 5. Once married, leave the marriage market. Avoid keeping an eye open for a better spouse.
6. Remain committed to your marriage. Most couples have irreconcilable differences and most learn to live comfortably together in spite of them.
7. Keep a positive outlook. Avoid losing hope in you first 36 months. Those who get past the 3-year mark often see improvements in quality of marital relationships and the first 36 months have the most intense adjustments in them.
8. Take the media with a grain of salt. Avoid accepting evidences that your marriage is doomed. This means being careful not to let accurate or inaccurate statistics convince you that all is lost, especially before you even marry.
9. Do your homework when selecting a mate. Take your time and realize that marrying in our late 20s is common now and carefully identify someone who is homogamous to you, especially about wanting to be married.
10. Focus on the positive benefits found to be associated with being married in society while learning to overlook some of the downsides.

Finally, decades of studies have indicated that have a history of cohabitation, ever having cohabited, contributes to higher likelihood of divorce. Cohabitation has been studied extensively for the last 2 decades, especially in contrast between cohabiting and married couple. Clear findings consistently show that cohabiting and marriage are two different creatures (see studies by Lawrence Ganong and Marilyn Coleman). Those who cohabit tend to establish patterns of relationships that later inhibit marital duration. In other words people who cohabit then later marry are much more likely to divorce than those who never cohabited.

As mentioned before, cohabitation is more common in the US today than ever before.

Cohabiters are considered to be unique from those who marry in a variety of ways, yet the similarities between married and cohabiting spouses suggests that their lifestyles overlap. In both life styles, relationships are formed and often ended. Cohabiters have more than twice the risks of their relationship ending than do marrieds (See 2008, Andrew J. Cherlin, “Multiple Partnerships and Children's Wellbeing.” Austrian Institute of Family Studies, No 89 Page 33-36).

Cherlin also discussed the uniqueness of cohabiting versus married couples. In sum, cohabiters often feel financially ill-equipped to marry, have lower expectations of relationship satisfaction than do marrieds, and often expect a shorter relational duration than marrieds. Cherlin's main thesis of this article is the stability for children when adult intimate relationships end. Cherlin's concern is well grounded in the statistics of divorce. Figure  shows that millions of US children have experienced their parents divorces since 1960 with nearly 1 million children of divorce each year.

Figure 7. United States Estimates of Numbers of Children Involved in Parents' Divorce and Number of Divorces 1960-2006

 

Key Points

• Divorce rates vary by region: higher in the West, lower in the Northeast.

• Teen marriage, marrying due to pregnancy, and premarital cohabitation increase divorce risk.

• Marrying after age 25, mutual commitment, faithfulness, and strong friendship lower divorce risk.

• Younger couples face economic, emotional, and social disadvantages that raise divorce likelihood.

• Many individuals keep a “backup option” mentality, weakening long-term commitment.

• Marriage requires ongoing work—relationships naturally decay without maintenance (“entropy”).

• Media exaggerates extreme stories, creating false impressions about marriage failure.

• Cohabitation is associated with higher breakup and divorce rates.

• Most divorce risk factors are within personal control (timing, mate choice, commitment).

• Ten recommended actions include: wait to marry, avoid marrying due to pregnancy, don’t cohabit if planning to marry, maintain the relationship proactively, stay committed, choose carefully, and keep a positive outlook.