12.1: Elections and Voting - Readings and Media
- Page ID
- 231695
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\(\newcommand{\avec}{\mathbf a}\) \(\newcommand{\bvec}{\mathbf b}\) \(\newcommand{\cvec}{\mathbf c}\) \(\newcommand{\dvec}{\mathbf d}\) \(\newcommand{\dtil}{\widetilde{\mathbf d}}\) \(\newcommand{\evec}{\mathbf e}\) \(\newcommand{\fvec}{\mathbf f}\) \(\newcommand{\nvec}{\mathbf n}\) \(\newcommand{\pvec}{\mathbf p}\) \(\newcommand{\qvec}{\mathbf q}\) \(\newcommand{\svec}{\mathbf s}\) \(\newcommand{\tvec}{\mathbf t}\) \(\newcommand{\uvec}{\mathbf u}\) \(\newcommand{\vvec}{\mathbf v}\) \(\newcommand{\wvec}{\mathbf w}\) \(\newcommand{\xvec}{\mathbf x}\) \(\newcommand{\yvec}{\mathbf y}\) \(\newcommand{\zvec}{\mathbf z}\) \(\newcommand{\rvec}{\mathbf r}\) \(\newcommand{\mvec}{\mathbf m}\) \(\newcommand{\zerovec}{\mathbf 0}\) \(\newcommand{\onevec}{\mathbf 1}\) \(\newcommand{\real}{\mathbb R}\) \(\newcommand{\twovec}[2]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\ctwovec}[2]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\threevec}[3]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\cthreevec}[3]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\fourvec}[4]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\cfourvec}[4]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\fivevec}[5]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \\ #5 \\ \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\cfivevec}[5]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \\ #5 \\ \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\mattwo}[4]{\left[\begin{array}{rr}#1 \amp #2 \\ #3 \amp #4 \\ \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\laspan}[1]{\text{Span}\{#1\}}\) \(\newcommand{\bcal}{\cal B}\) \(\newcommand{\ccal}{\cal C}\) \(\newcommand{\scal}{\cal S}\) \(\newcommand{\wcal}{\cal W}\) \(\newcommand{\ecal}{\cal E}\) \(\newcommand{\coords}[2]{\left\{#1\right\}_{#2}}\) \(\newcommand{\gray}[1]{\color{gray}{#1}}\) \(\newcommand{\lgray}[1]{\color{lightgray}{#1}}\) \(\newcommand{\rank}{\operatorname{rank}}\) \(\newcommand{\row}{\text{Row}}\) \(\newcommand{\col}{\text{Col}}\) \(\renewcommand{\row}{\text{Row}}\) \(\newcommand{\nul}{\text{Nul}}\) \(\newcommand{\var}{\text{Var}}\) \(\newcommand{\corr}{\text{corr}}\) \(\newcommand{\len}[1]{\left|#1\right|}\) \(\newcommand{\bbar}{\overline{\bvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\bhat}{\widehat{\bvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\bperp}{\bvec^\perp}\) \(\newcommand{\xhat}{\widehat{\xvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\vhat}{\widehat{\vvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\uhat}{\widehat{\uvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\what}{\widehat{\wvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\Sighat}{\widehat{\Sigma}}\) \(\newcommand{\lt}{<}\) \(\newcommand{\gt}{>}\) \(\newcommand{\amp}{&}\) \(\definecolor{fillinmathshade}{gray}{0.9}\)1. Research Archive of Rising Scholars
Qiao, B. (2024, October 18). Demographic influences on U.S. election outcomes across levels: A machine learning approach [Preprint]. Research Archive of Rising Scholars. https://doi.org/10.58445/rars.1785
Read here Benjamin Qiao's examination of how race and education affect election results at presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial levels through his research which employs contemporary machine learning methods. The research demonstrates that racial demographics serve as the leading factors which determine election outcomes particularly during presidential elections. The influence of race proves stronger than other demographic factors at both senatorial and gubernatorial levels but reaches its peak during national elections. The study shows that education levels also influence election results but to a lesser extent than racial demographics.
2. Niskanen Center
Niskanen Center. (2018, April 11). Episode 14: How racial stereotypes impacted voting for Obama and Trump. Retrieved July 20, 2025, from https://www.niskanencenter.org/how-racial-stereotypes-impacted-voting-for-obama-and-trump/ niskanencenter.org+1clark.dirzon.com+1
Now that we know how important race is in election prediction, in this article, learn how racial factors persistently determine American voting behavior despite the disappearance of explicit racist campaign discourse. Specifically discussed is how implicit racial attitudes and longstanding stereotypes influenced voting behavior in the 2008 and 2016 presidential elections.
The research examines how voters who maintained negative stereotypes about African Americans refused to back Barack Obama even though he presented a centrist agenda, and how racial prejudices helped Donald Trump win by using identity-based campaign strategies. Grasp the impact of race, identity, and social cognition on American electoral politics through political psychology and voter data analysis.
As you read, also think about whether Obama's victories (2008 and 2012) marked the beginning of a “post-racial” political period as some researchers believed, or whether the contrary is true: that deeply racial factors remain integrated into the psychological foundations of American politics.
3. Italian Journal of Electoral Studies
Giuliani, M. (2025). Gender and race in Kamala Harris’s defeat. A cross-state analysis of U.S. 2024 presidential election. Italian Journal of Electoral Studies (IJES), Research Note 6, 1–23, Just Accepted. https://doi.org/10.36253/qoe-17135
In light of race as demographic election determiner and mobilizer, as introduced above, how do we explain Kamala Harris's election defeat in 2024? In his 2025 research, Giuliani, notes how gender and race influenced Kamala Harris's defeat in the 2024 presidential election. This research uses cross-state data to ask: Did Harris receive better support from states with higher numbers of women voters and Black voters? How about support for her from states with large Hispanic populations? States with high numbers of female voters? How do her numbers compare to those of Joe Biden?
Economic and political factors including campaign intensity and state-level ballot measures are also investigated, but the big discovery is that demographic identity failed to ensure electoral victory. The study reveals that identity politics remains complex and demographic affinity does not automatically lead to success anymore. Rather, what is needed are targeted outreach and policy engagement.