9.3.12: Electoral Cartography
- Page ID
- 212739
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\(\newcommand{\avec}{\mathbf a}\) \(\newcommand{\bvec}{\mathbf b}\) \(\newcommand{\cvec}{\mathbf c}\) \(\newcommand{\dvec}{\mathbf d}\) \(\newcommand{\dtil}{\widetilde{\mathbf d}}\) \(\newcommand{\evec}{\mathbf e}\) \(\newcommand{\fvec}{\mathbf f}\) \(\newcommand{\nvec}{\mathbf n}\) \(\newcommand{\pvec}{\mathbf p}\) \(\newcommand{\qvec}{\mathbf q}\) \(\newcommand{\svec}{\mathbf s}\) \(\newcommand{\tvec}{\mathbf t}\) \(\newcommand{\uvec}{\mathbf u}\) \(\newcommand{\vvec}{\mathbf v}\) \(\newcommand{\wvec}{\mathbf w}\) \(\newcommand{\xvec}{\mathbf x}\) \(\newcommand{\yvec}{\mathbf y}\) \(\newcommand{\zvec}{\mathbf z}\) \(\newcommand{\rvec}{\mathbf r}\) \(\newcommand{\mvec}{\mathbf m}\) \(\newcommand{\zerovec}{\mathbf 0}\) \(\newcommand{\onevec}{\mathbf 1}\) \(\newcommand{\real}{\mathbb R}\) \(\newcommand{\twovec}[2]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\ctwovec}[2]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\threevec}[3]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\cthreevec}[3]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\fourvec}[4]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\cfourvec}[4]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\fivevec}[5]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \\ #5 \\ \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\cfivevec}[5]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \\ #5 \\ \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\mattwo}[4]{\left[\begin{array}{rr}#1 \amp #2 \\ #3 \amp #4 \\ \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\laspan}[1]{\text{Span}\{#1\}}\) \(\newcommand{\bcal}{\cal B}\) \(\newcommand{\ccal}{\cal C}\) \(\newcommand{\scal}{\cal S}\) \(\newcommand{\wcal}{\cal W}\) \(\newcommand{\ecal}{\cal E}\) \(\newcommand{\coords}[2]{\left\{#1\right\}_{#2}}\) \(\newcommand{\gray}[1]{\color{gray}{#1}}\) \(\newcommand{\lgray}[1]{\color{lightgray}{#1}}\) \(\newcommand{\rank}{\operatorname{rank}}\) \(\newcommand{\row}{\text{Row}}\) \(\newcommand{\col}{\text{Col}}\) \(\renewcommand{\row}{\text{Row}}\) \(\newcommand{\nul}{\text{Nul}}\) \(\newcommand{\var}{\text{Var}}\) \(\newcommand{\corr}{\text{corr}}\) \(\newcommand{\len}[1]{\left|#1\right|}\) \(\newcommand{\bbar}{\overline{\bvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\bhat}{\widehat{\bvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\bperp}{\bvec^\perp}\) \(\newcommand{\xhat}{\widehat{\xvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\vhat}{\widehat{\vvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\uhat}{\widehat{\uvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\what}{\widehat{\wvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\Sighat}{\widehat{\Sigma}}\) \(\newcommand{\lt}{<}\) \(\newcommand{\gt}{>}\) \(\newcommand{\amp}{&}\) \(\definecolor{fillinmathshade}{gray}{0.9}\)Electoral Cartography
Political geography gets a great deal of national attention every four years when Americans choose a President. Since 2000, news media outlets on TV and the internet have frequently used the so-called red- states-blue states map to predict or explain Electoral College votes that determine the outcome of the presidential election.
Geographers have been frustrated by this famous map for several reasons. First, the colors are reversed. Until recently, it was nearly universally accepted that the color red was reserved for revolutionary, radical or even progressive or left-leaning political parties. Communists always use red in their flags and symbols. That’s why they are called Reds and those who sympathized with communists, socialists or even left-leaning Democrats have been occasionally called pinkos. Conservative movements, on the other hand, have historically chosen the color blue in contradistinction. How the colors got flipped is unclear.
Secondly, the map does a poor job of showing the relative influence of each state in the outcome of the election. States like Montana and Wyoming, because of their very small population, have little impact on the outcome of the Presidential election because they have so few Electoral College votes (three each). Maryland alone has more than double the number of votes as Montana and Wyoming, but it is barely visible on the map. One means to overcome the distortion caused by the mismatch between areal size and voting power is a cartogram, a special type of map that attempts to minimize this effect by altering the size of states based on their number of electoral votes.
Figure Cartogram of electoral votes by state using a bivariate color scheme for the 2012 US presidential election. Note how the size
Another serious flaw in the states-only map is that it fails to show the significant intrastate variation in voting and fails to show the massive contribution of urban areas to the outcome of major elections. Most of the land area of the United States is rural but sparsely populated. Over 75% of Americans live in cities, but cities are hardly noticeable in the standard red-states-blue-states maps. The inability of state-level choropleth maps to communicate these realities invites viewers to commit the ecological fallacy.
The last major problem is that this map is widely misinterpreted because it strongly suggests that the United States is polarized politically on a state-by-state basis, when in fact most states are divided between Republicans and Democrats. Cartographers have suggested that a “purple states vs. violet states” map is more appropriate for mapping the popular vote. For the winner-take-all Electoral College votes, the red-vs-blue map remains most accurate.
The Amazing Morphing Campaign Money Map
YouTube Video from National Public Radio, showing animated versions of electoral votes and campaign spending. Source: NPR
Alt text from image: 2012 Presidential election map
The Amazing Morphing Campaign Money Map