9.4.3: Crime Mapping and Analysis
- Page ID
- 212744
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\(\newcommand{\avec}{\mathbf a}\) \(\newcommand{\bvec}{\mathbf b}\) \(\newcommand{\cvec}{\mathbf c}\) \(\newcommand{\dvec}{\mathbf d}\) \(\newcommand{\dtil}{\widetilde{\mathbf d}}\) \(\newcommand{\evec}{\mathbf e}\) \(\newcommand{\fvec}{\mathbf f}\) \(\newcommand{\nvec}{\mathbf n}\) \(\newcommand{\pvec}{\mathbf p}\) \(\newcommand{\qvec}{\mathbf q}\) \(\newcommand{\svec}{\mathbf s}\) \(\newcommand{\tvec}{\mathbf t}\) \(\newcommand{\uvec}{\mathbf u}\) \(\newcommand{\vvec}{\mathbf v}\) \(\newcommand{\wvec}{\mathbf w}\) \(\newcommand{\xvec}{\mathbf x}\) \(\newcommand{\yvec}{\mathbf y}\) \(\newcommand{\zvec}{\mathbf z}\) \(\newcommand{\rvec}{\mathbf r}\) \(\newcommand{\mvec}{\mathbf m}\) \(\newcommand{\zerovec}{\mathbf 0}\) \(\newcommand{\onevec}{\mathbf 1}\) \(\newcommand{\real}{\mathbb R}\) \(\newcommand{\twovec}[2]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\ctwovec}[2]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\threevec}[3]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\cthreevec}[3]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\fourvec}[4]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\cfourvec}[4]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\fivevec}[5]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \\ #5 \\ \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\cfivevec}[5]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \\ #5 \\ \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\mattwo}[4]{\left[\begin{array}{rr}#1 \amp #2 \\ #3 \amp #4 \\ \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\laspan}[1]{\text{Span}\{#1\}}\) \(\newcommand{\bcal}{\cal B}\) \(\newcommand{\ccal}{\cal C}\) \(\newcommand{\scal}{\cal S}\) \(\newcommand{\wcal}{\cal W}\) \(\newcommand{\ecal}{\cal E}\) \(\newcommand{\coords}[2]{\left\{#1\right\}_{#2}}\) \(\newcommand{\gray}[1]{\color{gray}{#1}}\) \(\newcommand{\lgray}[1]{\color{lightgray}{#1}}\) \(\newcommand{\rank}{\operatorname{rank}}\) \(\newcommand{\row}{\text{Row}}\) \(\newcommand{\col}{\text{Col}}\) \(\renewcommand{\row}{\text{Row}}\) \(\newcommand{\nul}{\text{Nul}}\) \(\newcommand{\var}{\text{Var}}\) \(\newcommand{\corr}{\text{corr}}\) \(\newcommand{\len}[1]{\left|#1\right|}\) \(\newcommand{\bbar}{\overline{\bvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\bhat}{\widehat{\bvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\bperp}{\bvec^\perp}\) \(\newcommand{\xhat}{\widehat{\xvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\vhat}{\widehat{\vvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\uhat}{\widehat{\uvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\what}{\widehat{\wvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\Sighat}{\widehat{\Sigma}}\) \(\newcommand{\lt}{<}\) \(\newcommand{\gt}{>}\) \(\newcommand{\amp}{&}\) \(\definecolor{fillinmathshade}{gray}{0.9}\)Crime Mapping and Analysis
The collection of electronic crime data allows law enforcement agencies to map each instance of crime digitally. By plotting crimes on a map, along with data about demographics, businesses, institutions, and known offenders, crime analysts using GIS have created an entire subfield of geography known as forensic geography or crime mapping. GIS, in the hands of crime geographers, offers law enforcement agencies a robust analytical toolkit that can offer both long-term policy guidance and short-term tactical advice.
Numerous television shows feature crime analysts who engage in criminal profiling, which is a kind of pseudo-scientific attempt to identify perpetrators of crime based on psychological characteristics and behaviors of suspects. Geographers use more scientifically rigorous analyses of data to identify likely suspects in specific types of crime sprees. Perhaps the most thrilling application of spatial principles in the study of crime is known as geographic profiling, a collection of techniques designed to identify spatial patterns in criminal behavior. Serial offenses, like arson, murder, car theft, etc. can be mapped, and by observing the criminal tendencies (modus operandi or M.O.) of offenders, analysts attempt to predict where an offender is likely to commit additional crimes, and even where the offender may live. Criminal activity, like most other activity, is conditioned by the principle of distance decay, therefore it can be assumed that most criminals tend to commit crimes near their home, or another locus of activity. With crime, however, there is a caveat: most serial criminals tend not to commit a crime in very close proximity to their home/workplace because they fear that someone would recognize them at/near the crime scene.
There are significant variations in the spatial pattern of crime sprees that depend on the individual serial criminal, the type of crime, and the geographic peculiarities of the region; but in some instances, criminals behave just as the geographers’ theories suggest and analysts using GIS can occasionally make predictions with reasonable accuracy. An assignment accompanying this text allows students to do some geographic profiling with data associated with crimes committed by the so- called Hollywood Arsonist, who set nearly 60 fires during several days near New Year’s Day 2012. Far more complex procedures are available to advanced students of the craft, including Rossmo’s Formula. More Americans are becoming aware of the power of GIS thanks to the publicity generated by television crime dramas (like NCIS, CSI, or Numb3rs) that occasionally feature geeky GIS crime analysts helping detectives solve baffling crime sprees.
Figure Hollywood, CA - A serial arsonist burned nearly 60 buildings during the New Year’s holiday 2011-2. Basic statistical techniques indicated where the perpetrator was likely to live. Date Source