14.3.2: Causal Reasoning
- Page ID
- 199362
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\(\newcommand{\avec}{\mathbf a}\) \(\newcommand{\bvec}{\mathbf b}\) \(\newcommand{\cvec}{\mathbf c}\) \(\newcommand{\dvec}{\mathbf d}\) \(\newcommand{\dtil}{\widetilde{\mathbf d}}\) \(\newcommand{\evec}{\mathbf e}\) \(\newcommand{\fvec}{\mathbf f}\) \(\newcommand{\nvec}{\mathbf n}\) \(\newcommand{\pvec}{\mathbf p}\) \(\newcommand{\qvec}{\mathbf q}\) \(\newcommand{\svec}{\mathbf s}\) \(\newcommand{\tvec}{\mathbf t}\) \(\newcommand{\uvec}{\mathbf u}\) \(\newcommand{\vvec}{\mathbf v}\) \(\newcommand{\wvec}{\mathbf w}\) \(\newcommand{\xvec}{\mathbf x}\) \(\newcommand{\yvec}{\mathbf y}\) \(\newcommand{\zvec}{\mathbf z}\) \(\newcommand{\rvec}{\mathbf r}\) \(\newcommand{\mvec}{\mathbf m}\) \(\newcommand{\zerovec}{\mathbf 0}\) \(\newcommand{\onevec}{\mathbf 1}\) \(\newcommand{\real}{\mathbb R}\) \(\newcommand{\twovec}[2]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\ctwovec}[2]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\threevec}[3]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\cthreevec}[3]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\fourvec}[4]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\cfourvec}[4]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\fivevec}[5]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \\ #5 \\ \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\cfivevec}[5]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \\ #5 \\ \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\mattwo}[4]{\left[\begin{array}{rr}#1 \amp #2 \\ #3 \amp #4 \\ \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\laspan}[1]{\text{Span}\{#1\}}\) \(\newcommand{\bcal}{\cal B}\) \(\newcommand{\ccal}{\cal C}\) \(\newcommand{\scal}{\cal S}\) \(\newcommand{\wcal}{\cal W}\) \(\newcommand{\ecal}{\cal E}\) \(\newcommand{\coords}[2]{\left\{#1\right\}_{#2}}\) \(\newcommand{\gray}[1]{\color{gray}{#1}}\) \(\newcommand{\lgray}[1]{\color{lightgray}{#1}}\) \(\newcommand{\rank}{\operatorname{rank}}\) \(\newcommand{\row}{\text{Row}}\) \(\newcommand{\col}{\text{Col}}\) \(\renewcommand{\row}{\text{Row}}\) \(\newcommand{\nul}{\text{Nul}}\) \(\newcommand{\var}{\text{Var}}\) \(\newcommand{\corr}{\text{corr}}\) \(\newcommand{\len}[1]{\left|#1\right|}\) \(\newcommand{\bbar}{\overline{\bvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\bhat}{\widehat{\bvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\bperp}{\bvec^\perp}\) \(\newcommand{\xhat}{\widehat{\xvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\vhat}{\widehat{\vvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\uhat}{\widehat{\uvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\what}{\widehat{\wvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\Sighat}{\widehat{\Sigma}}\) \(\newcommand{\lt}{<}\) \(\newcommand{\gt}{>}\) \(\newcommand{\amp}{&}\) \(\definecolor{fillinmathshade}{gray}{0.9}\)Causal Reasoning
Causal reasoning is based on the idea that for every action there is a reaction. Stated very simply, a cause is anything that is directly responsible for producing something else, usually termed the effect. There are two forms of causal reasoning:
- Cause to effect: a known cause or causes is capable of producing some unknown effect or effects
- Effect to cause: some known effect(s) has/have been produced by some unknown cause or causes.
The goal of causal reasoning is to figure out how or why something happened. For instance, you did well on a test because you studied two days in advance. I could then predict that if you study two days in advance of the next test, you will do well. In causal reasoning, the critical thinker is trying to establish a predictive function between two directly related variables. If we can figure out how and why things occur, we can then try to predict what will happen in the future.
Tests of Causal Reasoning:
- The cause must be capable of producing the effect described, and vice versa. Has causality really been established or is it just coincidence? Is the cause really capable of producing the effect and vice versa? There must be a direct connection between the cause and the effect that can be demonstrated using empirical evidence. For example, many people mistake superstition for causal reasoning. Is the source of good luck the rubbing of a rabbit’s foot? Is the cause of bad luck really the fact that you walked under a ladder or broke the mirror? Did wearing that shirt really cause your team to win five games in a row? The critical thinker must make a clear distinction between a valid causal occurrence and sheer coincidence.
- Cumulative causal reasoning increases the soundness of the conclusion. The more times the causal pattern has happened, the greater the strength given to thecausal reasoning, leading to a more valid conclusion. If this is the first time this association has ever been asserted the advocate will have to use more evidence to support the soundness of the causal reasoning advanced.
- Counter causal factors must also be accounted for. The advocate must be aware of the other inherent causal factors that could disrupt the relationship between the cause and effect presented. A claim was made by a father that his son committed suicide because he was influenced to do so by the songs of a particular rock musician. If we assume that such a causal association exists, we also need to know if there are any other factors that could disrupt the connection: Was the son depressed; had he tried to commit suicide before; were there family problems; did he listen to other artists and other types of music; did he have peer problems; did he have relationship problems; was he having problems in school, etc.? Each one of these, individually, might be enough to destroy the direct causal relationship that is attempting to be established.