Section 10.1: Future Prospects of Latin@s in the U.S.
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\(\newcommand{\avec}{\mathbf a}\) \(\newcommand{\bvec}{\mathbf b}\) \(\newcommand{\cvec}{\mathbf c}\) \(\newcommand{\dvec}{\mathbf d}\) \(\newcommand{\dtil}{\widetilde{\mathbf d}}\) \(\newcommand{\evec}{\mathbf e}\) \(\newcommand{\fvec}{\mathbf f}\) \(\newcommand{\nvec}{\mathbf n}\) \(\newcommand{\pvec}{\mathbf p}\) \(\newcommand{\qvec}{\mathbf q}\) \(\newcommand{\svec}{\mathbf s}\) \(\newcommand{\tvec}{\mathbf t}\) \(\newcommand{\uvec}{\mathbf u}\) \(\newcommand{\vvec}{\mathbf v}\) \(\newcommand{\wvec}{\mathbf w}\) \(\newcommand{\xvec}{\mathbf x}\) \(\newcommand{\yvec}{\mathbf y}\) \(\newcommand{\zvec}{\mathbf z}\) \(\newcommand{\rvec}{\mathbf r}\) \(\newcommand{\mvec}{\mathbf m}\) \(\newcommand{\zerovec}{\mathbf 0}\) \(\newcommand{\onevec}{\mathbf 1}\) \(\newcommand{\real}{\mathbb R}\) \(\newcommand{\twovec}[2]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\ctwovec}[2]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\threevec}[3]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\cthreevec}[3]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\fourvec}[4]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\cfourvec}[4]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\fivevec}[5]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \\ #5 \\ \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\cfivevec}[5]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \\ #5 \\ \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\mattwo}[4]{\left[\begin{array}{rr}#1 \amp #2 \\ #3 \amp #4 \\ \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\laspan}[1]{\text{Span}\{#1\}}\) \(\newcommand{\bcal}{\cal B}\) \(\newcommand{\ccal}{\cal C}\) \(\newcommand{\scal}{\cal S}\) \(\newcommand{\wcal}{\cal W}\) \(\newcommand{\ecal}{\cal E}\) \(\newcommand{\coords}[2]{\left\{#1\right\}_{#2}}\) \(\newcommand{\gray}[1]{\color{gray}{#1}}\) \(\newcommand{\lgray}[1]{\color{lightgray}{#1}}\) \(\newcommand{\rank}{\operatorname{rank}}\) \(\newcommand{\row}{\text{Row}}\) \(\newcommand{\col}{\text{Col}}\) \(\renewcommand{\row}{\text{Row}}\) \(\newcommand{\nul}{\text{Nul}}\) \(\newcommand{\var}{\text{Var}}\) \(\newcommand{\corr}{\text{corr}}\) \(\newcommand{\len}[1]{\left|#1\right|}\) \(\newcommand{\bbar}{\overline{\bvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\bhat}{\widehat{\bvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\bperp}{\bvec^\perp}\) \(\newcommand{\xhat}{\widehat{\xvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\vhat}{\widehat{\vvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\uhat}{\widehat{\uvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\what}{\widehat{\wvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\Sighat}{\widehat{\Sigma}}\) \(\newcommand{\lt}{<}\) \(\newcommand{\gt}{>}\) \(\newcommand{\amp}{&}\) \(\definecolor{fillinmathshade}{gray}{0.9}\)Demographic Projections
The changing demographic composition of the United States will impact race relations and the experiences of the Latin@ population. According to Pew Center and U.S. Census projections, by 2050 the Latin@ population will increase to 29% (from 14% in 2005) of the U.S. population and the non-Hispanic white population is projected to drop to 47% (from 67% in 2005). Moreover, their share will be higher for children under the age of 18 (35%) will be only five percentage points less than the non-Hispanic white population - 40% (Passel and Cohn, 2008). Another significant trend is that the percentage of foreign-born Latin@s will continue to drop over the next three decades, from a high of 40% in 2005 and will be projected to be 33% in 2050. On the one hand, the increase in the Latin@ population will most likely increase their electoral and political power and increase their influence as a major voting bloc at the local, state, and national levels. On the other hand, Aguirre and Turner would argue that an increase in the size of a racialized people of color may increase the sense of threat by the majority group and may lead to holding on to negative beliefs stereotypes, discrimination, and racial tension.
Figure. 10.1.1. Population by Race and Ethnicity, Actual and Projected: 1960, 2005, 2050. Pew Center.
10.1.2. Hispanic Population by Generation, Actual and Projected: 1960 - 2050. Pew Center.
Figure 10.1.3. Child Population by Race and Ethnicity, Actual and Projected: 1960, 2005, 2050. Pew Center.
Integration of the Immigrant Population
The future of the Latin@ population in the United States will also be determined by the path that the U.S. government chooses to take with regards to the integration and incorporation of undocumented immigrants. As of this writing, the incoming Trump administration is threatening to conduct mass deportation regimes, despite the fact a UCLA LPPI study found that providing citizenship to undocumented workers would generate an additional $1.5 trillion in Gross Domesticate Product over 10 years. In addition to the taxes they currently pay into the system, Hinojosa et al (2021) also estimated that they would pay an additional $367 billion in taxes and create an additional 371,000 new jobs over the following decade. Similarly, according to a 2023 survey of DACA recipients conducted by the Center for American Progress and the UC San Diego Immigration Policy Center found that over 90% of them were employed, nearly a third purchased their first home in 2023, and average annual earnings was over $67,000. They also estimated that the approximately 544,000 active DACA recipients earned $27.9 billion in wages and contributed nearly $2.1 billion to Social Security and Medicare. Despite the very real success of DACA and the overwhelming evidence that a path to citizenship for unauthorized workers would provide a mutually beneficial policy, there is little hope that this will occur over the next 4 years, to the detriment of the entire society.
Contributors:
Carlos Ramos, Long Beach City College
Hinojosa-Ojeda, R. et al (2021). A Path to Prosperity: The Macroeconomic Benefits of Four Immigrant Regularization Scenarios. UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Initiative Report.
Passel, J. & Cohn, D. (2008). U.S. Population Projections: 2005-2050. Pew Research Center Report.
Wong, R. et al (2024). 2023 Survey of DACA Recipients Highlights Economic Advancement, Continued Uncertainty Amid Legal Limbo. Center for American Progress Report.