7.5.1: Introduction - The Changing Map of Energy

Learning Objectives

By the end of this section, you will be able to:

• Identify the energy profile of specific countries and regions
• Consider the implications of a changing global energy mix for global politics, economics, and security

Introduction

Flip a light switch. This simple act, which we engage in many times daily, points to a significant modern convenience with global reverberations. Electricity has a taken-for-granted quality in our hurried modern lives, but when the flow of electricity stops for some reason, we realize keenly our dependence on it. Our screen-filled lives and nighttime studying by lamplight all require electricity.

Electrification is a relatively modern development. Its use in buildings and homes only gained momentum in the early Twentieth Century, replacing more labor-intensive and volatile gas fixtures. In 2021, 91 percent of the world’s population had access to electricity, which is a significant number considering how much of our modern lives depends on plugging in stuff. Yet significant areas of the world still lack access to this basic amenity. While 9 out of every 10 people in the world have access to electricity, more than 560 million people in Africa south of the Sahara continue to lack access (World Bank, 2023). Access to electricity has continued to improve over time, but these global gaps in access remain a challenge. This, along with the push to balance the growing demand for energy with environmental costs, are two of the major problems facing the global community today.

Figure 10.1.1: The nighttime urban landscape of Atlanta, Georgia, demonstrates our intensive reliance on electricity to power our modern lives. (CC BY-NC 2.0; Thomas Hawk via Flickr)

Electricity is considered a secondary energy source. It stems from a mix of primary energy sources, some of which are converted to electricity and some of which provide energy directly to us to meet our needs. Our lives are fueled by a mix of primary energy sources: the firewood that we use in campfires, coal for cooking, natural gas for ovens and home heating systems, and the rising tide of “renewables” which includes solar, wind, geothermal, and hydropower sources. As awareness of the human impact on climate change grows, there is now greater interest in renewable sources of energy, along with efforts to decrease our collective dependence on non-renewables such as oil, coal, and natural gas. The burning of such fossil fuels is a major driver of present-day climate change.

There is an important link between energy and globalization. If globalization is conceived as the global integration and circulation of people, ideas, and goods, all of this is fueled by global flows of energy. During waves of globalization in the Twentieth Century, in the period before the First World War I (1914-1918) and after the collapse of the Soviet Bloc (1989-1991), energy – most often in the form of fossil fuels – circulated on an unprecedented global scale and fueled great leaps in national and international prosperity. Indeed, the globalization of energy has been accelerating in recent decades (Overland, 2016). Technological breakthroughs, from the “fracking revolution” (described below) to the construction of infrastructure for transporting liquefied natural gas around the world, has fueled this globalization of energy.

A survey of global energy might focus on the “Big Three” of world oil production, which today includes the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia (Yergin, 2020, p. 57). The United States produces the most oil in the world, approximately one-fifth (21 percent) of total world production in 2022, followed by Saudi Arabia (13 percent) and Russia (10 percent).

Table of Top 10 Oil Producers and Share of Total World Oil Production in 2022

Country	Barrels per day (millions)	Share of world total (percent)
United States	20.30	21
Saudi Arabia	12.44	13
Russia	10.13	10
Canada	5.83	6
Iraq	4.61	5
China	4.45	5
United Arab Emirates	4.23	4
Iran	3.67	4
Brazil	3.17	3
Kuwait	3.01	3
Total Top 10	71.83	74

Table 10.1.1: Top 10 Oil Producers and Share of Total World Oil Production in 2022 (public domain; Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration)

Unsurprisingly, the U.S. is also the top consumer of oil in the world, followed closely by the major growing economies of Asia. The most significant emerging consumers of energy, Asian juggernauts India and China, are on track to increase energy consumption at the steepest pace in coming decades. World energy consumption is projected to grow by 50 percent through 2050, and most of this growth will be driven by countries outside of the wealthy developed core defined by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). By 2050, nearly half of the world’s energy consumption will take place in Asia, also on track to remain the most populous region of the world.

Global Energy Trends

To break down global energy trends further, let’s turn to a brief look at trends in different regions of the world.

Africa

Africa is poised to shift toward renewable energy sources in coming decades, especially solar. Demand for energy will continue to increase continent-wide, driven in part by strong population growth and industrialization. It will also be a critical region due to natural resources located on the continent; significant global reserves of key minerals such as cobalt, lithium, manganese, nickel, and platinum, which are critical for battery production and hydrogen fuel cells, are located in countries throughout Africa.

The top African oil producer today is Nigeria, followed by Algeria, Libya, and Angola. All of these countries are governed by nondemocratic leaders and institutions and oil production is dominated by state-owned companies. For many years, Nigeria’s oil production has been disrupted by violent armed groups such as Boko Haram, which have created security risks for further development of energy resources. Demand for African energy exports is robust, especially from industrial giant China. Geopolitical tensions in Eurasia, notably Russian aggression toward Ukraine, Georgia, and other countries, has resulted in more European interest in African energy supplies.

Asia

A vast region of two dozen countries, Asia remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels to spur high growth rates. On the eastern edge of Asia, China is the most significant consumer of energy, especially of fossil fuels such as coal. In 2021, just over half of China’s energy (55 percent) came from coal, mostly domestic stores, and the remainder of its energy needs came from petroleum (19 percent), natural gas (9 percent), hydropower (8 percent), and other sources (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2022). There has been a widening gap between China’s appetite for petroleum and domestic production, hence it is reliant on global oil imports to fuel its massive economy. China’s leaders have taken some steps to decrease their country’s carbon footprint, including pledges to no longer provide financing for the construction of coal plants abroad. It continues to build coal plants domestically, however.

Many other Asian countries are working toward an energy transition to renewable sources, but this remains a challenge without significant support from external agencies such as the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank to assist with infrastructure costs.

Europe

Europe has set lofty goals to address climate change and shift away from reliance on fossil fuels. In 2019, the European Commission declared that Europe would become the first climate-neutral continent by 2050, and it has sought to make this a binding commitment through legislation (European Commission, 2019). Sweden is among the global leaders in the shift to renewables: by 2012, it had already achieved 50 percent reliance on renewable energy. The industrial giant of the region, Germany, has also pledged to reach this 50 percent goal by 2030 and phase out coal altogether by 2038.

Russia remains a major energy exporter on Europe’s eastern flank. It is the world’s largest exporter of natural gas (but the second largest world producer after the United States). Gas reaches end users via pipelines that crisscross Eurasia, along with exports of liquefied natural gas and oil via sea freight. Due to geopolitical tensions and war in Ukraine, the European Commission has further announced a plan to decrease western European dependence on Russian energy imports by 2030. It hopes to achieve this through a combination of bringing more renewable energy online and diversifying natural gas supplies.

Figure 10.1.2: Gas pipeline maintenance in northern Russia (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0; Anton Romanko via Flickr)

Middle East

Oil transformed the profile and wealth of the Middle East beginning in the Twentieth Century. Today, major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) remain banks for the world’s oil consumers due to their significant spare capacity. The International Energy Agency estimates that Saudi Arabia and UAE have the capacity to increase oil production by 2 million barrels per day, which is significant power for two authoritarian governments in a world where total global oil demand is about 100 million barrels per day.

Gulf countries must wrestle with the global push to decrease dependence on fossil fuels. Global demand for oil may peak by 2030, threatening the economic and social foundation of many countries in the Middle East. With this in mind, conversations have begun regarding the shift to renewables, but the region lags behind the European Union and China on energy transition initiatives.

In the Eastern Mediterranean, major offshore discoveries of natural gas, in combination with newer extraction technologies, have led to a flurry of exploration and development. These finds have changed the geopolitics of the region and brought players such as Israel and Cyprus into the global natural gas conversation (Krasna, 2023).

Latin America and the Caribbean

In contrast to Asia, Latin American countries are much less reliant on coal. Nonetheless, about 70 percent of the region’s energy needs comes from fossil fuels, mostly oil and gas (UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), 2022). This balance may shift toward renewables in coming decades. At present, non-combustible renewable energy sources such as hydropower and combustible energy sources such as sugar cane are each approximately 8 percent of the region’s energy mix.

Latin America also faces development hurdles related to energy. Millions of citizens in the poorest countries, especially Guatemala, Nicaragua, and El Salvador, do not have access to electricity. Indigenous populations are disproportionately impacted by these infrastructure shortfalls. Major oil producer Venezuela has been suffering from combined political, economic, social, and health crises for over a decade, which has further reduced energy production in the region.

Figure 10.1.3: An oil tanker crossing Lake Maracaibo in northern Venezuela (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0; Wildredorrh via Flickr)

North America

North America is a region of rich energy deposits and exploitation. There exists significant energy integration across the North American economies of Canada, Mexico, and the United States due to trade agreements such as the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (formerly NAFTA). As part of this trade regime, which reduces trade barriers between the three countries, the U.S. refines nearly a quarter of Canadian crude oil, while Canada and Mexico each import about half of the United States' exported motor gasoline (Lusinyan, 2015).

The United States is where a “fracking revolution” transformed the energy profile of the country and launched it to global leadership in oil and natural gas production at the start of the Twenty-first Century. This revolution in fossil fuel extraction depended on breakthroughs in two key technologies, horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”). The latter involves forcing a slurry of water, sand, and chemicals through fissures in shale rock formations to release oil or natural gas deposits. These technologies became commercially feasible by the mid-2000s and led to energy booms in states such as Texas and North Dakota. By the 2020s, the United States had shifted its position from net energy importer to exporter. There have been fierce political battles over these developments, involving both land rights and short- and long-term environmental risks.

The fracking revolution also impacted coal as a source of electricity: “As late as 2007, coal generated half of U.S. electricity. By 2019, it was down to 24 percent, and natural gas had risen to 38 percent. That was the main reason why U.S. carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions dropped down to the levels of the early 1990s, despite a doubling in the U.S. economy,” (Yergin, 2020, pp. 12-13). The U.S. energy profile has undergone significant transformation in recent decades, and the next big challenge concerns the transition away from fossil fuels. Given the powerful economic, political, and cultural forces supporting intensive fossil fuel use, the transition will call for determination, creativity, and deep wells of innovation.

Figure 10.1.4: A brilliantly illuminated oil refinery in Sarnia, Canada, is one link in North America’s massive fossil fuel industry. (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0; Jeff S. PhotoArt via Flickr)