4.5: Comparative Case Study – South Africa and Iraq

Learning Objectives

By the end of this section, you will be able to:

• Compare and contrast South Africa and Iraq’s regime transitions.
• Identify internal and external factors which contributed to regime transition in South Africa and Iraq.

Introduction

Political scientist Samuel P. Huntington popularized the concept of waves of democracy, moments in history when multiple countries transitioned to democracy during the same time period. Often, these waves are attributed to the combination of internal and external factors facing countries.

Internal factors can include

• societal rejection of authoritarian regimes resulting in decreased legitimacy
• economic growth that may help countries modernize and improve institutions, such as supporting education and the working class
• changes in how religion and religious traditions factor into political institutions

External factors can include

• regional pressures that occur if/when citizens observe other societies transitioning towards democracy and want the same governmental changes for their own countries
• global pressures as more global news and information are available to citizens in different countries.
• exposure to new ideas causing citizens to question the legitimacy and basis for their own country’s government

Between the 1970s and 1990s, a Third Wave occurred, when authoritarian regimes transitioned into democratic regimes, initially garnering great hope worldwide. Forty years later, however, a number of the countries that had initially moved towards democratization experienced disparate outcomes. Some scientists argued that most countries that attempted to democratize during and following the third wave simply became semi-authoritarian regimes or flawed democracies.

Through the lens of Most Similar Systems Design (MSSD), this case study considers the similarities in South Africa and Iraq’s moves to democratize while also exploring how their political outcomes have differed.

South Africa

Full Country Name: Republic of South Africa
Head(s) of State: President
Government: Parliamentary Republic (Unitary dominant-party / executive presidency)
Official Languages: 11 Official languages
(English, Zulu, Swazi, Afrikaans, Sepedi, Sesotho, Setswana, Xitsonga, Xhosa,
Tshivenda, isiNdebele)
Economic System: Mixed economy
Location: Southern Africa, at the southern tip of the continent of Africa
Capital: Pretoria
Total land size: 1,219,090 sq km
Population: 56.9 million
GDP: $680.04 billion note
GDP per capita: $11,500
Currency: Rand

Like Botswana and Somalia in Chapter 3, South Africa’s history is marked by frequent interventions and occupations by foreign powers through colonialism and imperialism. British and Dutch powers, attempting to expand their empires and grow their influence, colonized parts of South Africa at various points between the 1600s and 1800s. By the 1900s, White South Africans demanded independence from Britain, which eventually culminated in the formation of the Union of South Africa in 1910. The government structure was modeled after the British system, and had a British leader installed as a ceremonial head of state. In 1931, full independence was achieved, giving South Africa’s government the ability to act outside of, and without permission from, the UK.

Although South Africa’s government had the hallmarks of a democratic government with three branches of government operating with checks and balances, its legacy of colonialism and racial divide made democratization difficult. Under British rule, segregation and the disenfranchisement of nonwhite citizens were legally promoted. Following World War II, the National Party stoked fears that significant growth in the nonwhite population of South Africa was a threat. After winning the majority votes in the 1948 election, the political party implemented a system of apartheid. (Apartheid is a system of governance wherein racial oppression is institutionalized.) In the case of South Africa, laws were implemented to ensure that South Africa’s minority white population could dominate all political, social, and economic factors within the country for their own benefit. Socially, Apartheid resulted in the segregation and displacement of nonwhites into segregated neighborhoods and the prohibition of interracial marriage and relationships.

In the 1970s and 1980s, South Africa experienced intense internal strife as clashes between those who supported the National Party, and those who opposed apartheid. The main opposition to the National Party, the African National Congress (ANC), worked to bring down South Africa’s system of apartheid by using a variety of tactics including guerilla warfare and acts of sabotage. Eventually, the National Party and the ANC began meeting to negotiate a way forward. The outcome was the abolishment of apartheid and, in the coming years, the election of the first democratically elected President of South Africa, Nelson Mandela.

Nelson Mandela was a member of the ANC who had been imprisoned for 27 years prior to his release in 1990. Under his leadership as President of South Africa, he oversaw the drafting of a new constitution which heavily emphasized racial equality and the protection of human rights. Mandela saw it as his personal mission to heal the racial divides within the country, and formed a Truth and Reconciliation Commission. The commission was tasked with investigating crimes committed by the government led by the National Party under Apartheid, as well as the crimes committed by the ANC. Though it can be difficult to quantify, the commission was widely held as an important factor in moving the country forward and focusing on improving the present challenges.

Mandela stepped down as the President of the ANC in 1998, and retired from politics in 1999. Although he made strides in improving domestic conditions, including investing in education, welfare programs, and the protection of workers and prominent industries, the country continues to struggle with racial tensions, as well as persistent xenophobia due to large influxes of legal and illegal migrants. One of the major criticisms of Mandela’s presidency was his failure to fully address the HIV/AIDS pandemic. For many years, the HIV/AIDS pandemic was so severe in South Africa that the average life expectancy was only 52 years. Failure to provide a strategic approach to combat the pandemic led to decades of poor health outcomes within the country.

For many years, South Africa’s transition to democracy was heralded as a victorious example of democratization. Nevertheless, current challenges to South Africa’s democracy include corruption, enduring racism, and increased rates of femicide and gender-based violence. Each of these realities has contributed to the Economist Intelligence Unit labeling South Africa as a flawed democracy. (Recall--Flawed democracies are those where elections are free and fair, and basic civil liberties are protected, but issues exist which may hamper the democratic process.)

Corruption is, at best, damaging to democracy and, at worst, fatal to democracy. It can erode the public’s trust in the government and its institutions, exacerbate inequality and poverty, and hinder economic development. In 2021, high-ranking political officials in South Africa faced allegations of corruption for misusing billions of dollars of foreign aid targeted toward COVID-19 relief. There are additional allegations of the government favoring some private companies over others. Corruption within a country can also yield skepticism and condemnation from the global community, as trading partners may lose trust in conducting business with corrupt regimes.

Racism can present threats to democracy. Failure to protect civil liberties and civil rights within a country can create illiberal or flawed democracies. Ongoing structural racism can exacerbate societal tensions and perpetuate violence. In the last two decades, police and military forces have allegedly been engaged in racist activities. For example, during COVID-19, a number of Black South Africans were killed by police officers violently enforcing lockdowns. Frequent instances of violence against Black citizens have prompted conversations over the implementation of hate crime legislation as well as appropriate rules for conduct regarding the use of force on citizens.

Finally, data has shown continued increases in femicide and gender-based violence. Here again, democracies that are unable to protect the civil liberties and civil rights of their citizens risk backsliding or inability to ever fully consolidate. To this end, equal protection of women under South African law is questionable. In 2019, 51% of women in South Africa experienced some kind of physical violence as a result of their gender. This violence continued to increase during the COVID-19 lockdowns.

Iraq

Full Country Name: Republic of Iraq
Head(s) of State: Prime Minister
Government: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Official Languages: Arabic & Kurdish
Economic System: Mixed economy
Location: Middle East, bordering the Persian Gulf, between Iran and Kuwait
Capital: Baghdad
Total land size: 169,235 sq mi
Population: 40 million
GDP: $250.070 billion
GDP per capita: $4,474
Currency: Iraqi Dinar

Iraq formed in the wake of the defeat of the Ottoman Empire. While Iraq was nominally independent, the country had signed an agreement with the British that gave them power over major segments of the country. In 1921, Britain established King Faysal Il as ruler of Mesopotamia and officially changed the name to Iraq, which means “well-rooted country” in Arabic. Many Arabs in the region saw Iraq as an artificially created country, established by British authorities to maintain power in the region. As a result, many people believed the country, and its newly installed royalty as illegitimate.

For the next three decades, the British remained in Iraq, with military bases, transit rights for troops, and eventually control over the growing oil industry. Still, the question of illegitimacy never left. In 1958, King Faysal II was overthrown in a coup led by a general that belonged to the Ba’athist Party. (The Ba’athist Party was a transnational Arab political party that espoused pan-Arab nationalism and socialist economic policies.) Although it came to power in Iraq and Syria, it also exerted some influence in Jordan, Lebanon, and Libya. Eventually, after internal conflicts between the Ba’athist party and the Iraqi military, the country came under the command of Saddam Hussein.

After eight (8) years of fighting, a stalemate was reached in the Iran-Iraq War. The country found itself in debt to its neighbors, particularly Kuwait, located to the South. Kuwait had been a thriving autonomous trading community for centuries. Over time, the British had curried favor with the ruling as-Sabah family and took control of their military and foreign affairs. Historically, Iraq claimed Kuwait as its 19th province and believed that the British had unfairly kept it from them. Hussein invaded and annexed the country in 1990. The US and a coalition of allies invaded Kuwait and Southern Iraq the next year. In 1992, the US set up two ‘no-fly zones’ to protect the Kurds in the north and the Shi’a in the south, who had rebelled against Hussein’s rule. (A no-fly zone is when a foreign power intervenes to prevent that country or another country from gaining air superiority. The intervening power must be willing to use their military to prevent certain aircraft from flying over an established area.)

The no-fly zones and ensuing UN embargo on Iraq greatly weakened the Hussein regime. However, the incoming US government strongly believed that Iraq was in the process of developing or acquiring weapons of mass destruction (WMD). After the September 11th, 2001 terrorist attacks, the Bush administration pushed to invade Iraq a second time. The 2003 invasion resulted in Hussein being captured. He was put on trial, found guilty of crimes against humanity, and executed in 2006. During this time, a fact-finding mission found that there was no identifiable WMD program.

The US invasion and Hussein’s fall had a dramatic effect on Iraq, and chaos ensued. The US was not ready to govern the country. Millions were displaced within Iraq and millions more fled the country as violence spiked. Long-simmering sectarian and ethnic disputes erupted in a full-fledged civil war and insurgency. Shi’a militias were unhappy about the U.S. military rule. Sunni tribes were fearful of reprisals. The Kurdish minority in the northern part of the country sought independence. Remnants of the Ba’athist party loyal to Hussein mostly folded into al-Qaeda in Iraq, which bitterly fought US forces in several major battles, including Fallujah. American soldiers were caught in the middle of a conflict where peace was elusive. Eventually, a surge of US troops in 2007 provided enough security to allow the country to stabilize and US forces finally withdrew from Iraq in 2011.

In 2014, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), a successor terrorist group to al-Qaeda, rapidly grew into a massive presence in the region and used the revenues from nearby oil fields to finance their violent activities. Starting in Syria, ISIS took advantage of the security vacuum and moved into Iraq. ISIS surprisingly captured Mosul, considered the second largest city in the country. The group quickly expanded to other countries and committed a series of terrorist attacks in Europe. However, by the end of 2017, ISIS had lost 95% of its territory. A combination of Russian-led Syrian forces and US-led Kurdish forces, who sometimes worked together, defeated ISIS on the battlefield.

The majority Shi’a had always chafed under Hussein’s rule. His departure meant that the Shi’a would gain political power for the first time in centuries. Democratic elections were held in 2005, and a religious Shi’a party won the plurality of seats under Nouri al-Maliki. al-Maliki remained as prime minister until 2014, governing a tenuous coalition while being accused of protecting Shi’a militias. He also forged closer ties with neighboring Iran, much to the chagrin of the U.S. authorities. In addition, Iraq Kurdistan declared independence in 2017. The referendum results were rejected by the Iraqi parliament, and Turkey vehemently opposed the move. Kurdistan is still part of Iraq, though the region effectively functions as an independent country.

Today, Iraq is a tenuous confederation of three major groups, Sunni Arabs in the west, Kurds in the north, and Shi’a Arabs in the central and southern parts of the country. The current prime minister is supported by the majority political bloc led by Moqtada al-Sadr. He comes from a powerful political family in Shi’a politics and is a major power broker in the country. Iraq has a president, who is elected by the Iraqi parliament and has a largely ceremonial role. Mostly the country is run through a sectarian apportionment system, muhasasa taiifia in Arabic, where the country is structured amongst the three major sectarian identities. Sectarianism is what led Iraqi Shi’a to look to Iran for leadership and what led Sunni Arab tribes to become receptive to first al-Qaeda and ISIS overtures. How long will it take for Iraq to consolidate as a democracy? That question remains unanswered for now.