Learning Objectives
By the end of this section, you will be able to:
- Evaluate indicators of democratic backsliding
Introduction
Historically, many countries that had adopted representative democracy or liberal republicanism returned to a non-democratic form of government. Indeed, the 21st century has been marked by a weakening of democratic institutions in many once-robust democracies. Democratic backsliding is when a country becomes more illiberal and undemocratic over time. This action can occur through
- the weakening of electoral systems and attenuation of the rule of law
- repression or infringement of civil and political liberties
- corrupt governance that enjoys weakening accountability.
Importantly, democratic backsliding is often gradual and protracted, as well as difficult to identify and stop because only smaller or subtle shifts that might not be cause for alarm by a critical mass of democrats within a society are noticed. While regime change from democracy to nondemocracy can happen via spectacular and sudden events such as a coup or revolution, democratic backsliding is more insidious and stymies those who might want to organize to combat it.
There are many reasons for democratic backsliding, including institutional, cultural, and international factors.
Institutional Explanations
Certain institutions render a country more vulnerable to nondemocratic rule. Presidential systems are famously unstable (Linz, 1990). They tend to centralize power in a single individual, and there are fewer mechanisms in place to check that individual from abuse of office. In a parliamentary system, executives are appointed by the legislature and subject to 'no confidence' votes. In a presidential democracy, executives are relatively difficult to dismiss before they complete their term of office. During this time, they may opt to abuse their power or degrade democracy in significant ways.
Countries which lack strong institutions of accountability are also more susceptible to democratic backsliding. When courts do not check those in power, and there is only a weak rule of law, then serious and flagrant abuse of public office is more likely. Significant and pervasive corruption – defined as misuse of public resources for private gain – can degrade a democracy, both in practice and in the legitimacy of that regime. Thus, well-resourced, robust anti-corruption bureaus or inspectors general are an important bulwark against this kind of internal decay.
A politically motivated military can also threaten democracy. When a military is subject to weak or inadequate civilian oversight, it can become a politicized actor and even seize control, culminating in nondemocratic military rule. Many governments are continually challenged to build a professional military that is focused on its security responsibilities rather than tempted by political power.
Cultural Explanations
Popular and elite beliefs in the appropriateness of democratic rule can shape political outcomes. When there are strong democratic norms in place, a society supports and reinforces democratic practices and institutions. Yet these “habits of the heart” can take long periods of time to mature and gain a taken-for-granted status in a society. Civic education can play a role in this endeavor, especially education that addresses liberal values such as liberty, fairness, representativeness, and accountability. Critical thinking about where authority and power should rest in their society, and believing that people are empowered to challenge nondemocratic rule act as buffers against democratic backsliding.
Charismatic, autocratic leaders can gain a national following and move a democracy toward non-democracy. A variety of tactics to gain a mass following may be used, especially those that might appeal to cultural faultlines or vulnerabilities within a society.
An aspiring autocrat might make populist appeals to
- in-group grievances and label an out-group as the culprit
- nationalist ambitions or exploit ethnic divisions
- present themselves as messengers with a holy message
- offer promises of a return to a golden past or golden future
Such autocratic leaders take a variety of forms, but a common goal is to degrade democratic institutions in order to consolidate power in non-democratic forms of governance.
One chilling example of this interplay between culture and political leadership can be found in the breakup of Yugoslavia during the 1990s. In the early years after the collapse of communist Yugoslavia, Serb nationalist named Slobodan Milošević argued that a newly independent Serbia should reclaim territories once occupied by the Serb nation. His calls fell on the fertile nationalist ground, which intersected with religious and ethnic faultlines in these Slavic territories. Milošević, who was eventually elected president of Serbia, was a major political leader and instigator during a brutal civil war that ensued between the former republics of Yugoslavia. He was eventually indicted for war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide in Bosnia Herzegovina.
International Factors
A country may be susceptible to democratic backsliding as a result of international factors, including “neighborhood effects”. If a country resides in a region where countries are trending non-democratic, or if there is a high regional concentration of non-democratic regimes, it is more likely to become a non-democracy. Conversely, a neighborhood that is pro-democracy, such as the European Union, can pull countries in the direction of embracing democracy.
International pressures for a democracy to backslide can be carried out via technological means. New information and communication technologies encourage countries to defy geographical constraints and reach into target countries to wage influence campaigns that seek to undermine democratic governments around the world through the dissemination of misinformation via social media platforms and the internet. This kind of sharp power tactic is a means to destabilize democracies by sowing division within populations and undermining democratic institutions such as the free flow of information and electoral integrity.
Covid-19 and Backsliding
According to the 2021 Global Report by IDEA, democracy has been endangered by a perfect storm of threats, both from within and from a rising tide of authoritarianism. The Covid-19 pandemic exacerbated these threats through states of emergency, the spread of disinformation, and crackdowns on independent media and freedom of expression. More countries than ever suffered from ‘democratic erosion’, including established democracies. The number of countries undergoing ‘democratic backsliding’ (a more severe and deliberate kind of democratic erosion) included regional geopolitical and economic powers, such as Brazil, India, and the United States.
In 2021, more than a quarter of the world’s population lived in democratically backsliding countries. Add the number of people living in outright non-democratic regimes, and more than two-thirds of the world’s population is represented. The full report is located here. Global State of Democracy Report 2021: Building Resilience in a Pandemic Era.
