3.4: Young and Rapidly Urbanizing Populations

Learning Objectives

1. Describe African demographic patterns and identify the challenges and opportunities of a rapidly growing and young population.
2. Explain how the education of girls has changed overtime and how it relates to demographic change in Africa South of the Sahara.
3. Compare urbanization patterns in African countries to the rest of the world.
4. Explain the apartheid system and its long-standing legacy in geographies of access in South Africa.
5. Describe slum upgrading and participatory mapping.

 

Young and Growing Populations

Today, Africa South of the Sahara is home to over 1.1 billion people. Two countries have a population of more than 100 million: Nigeria (196 million) and Ethiopia (107.5 million). Population density varies, but high densities are found in coastal cities and surrounding fertile soils and great lakes of the Rift Valley. As a continent, Africa is the second most populous in the world (only behind Asia), and it is growing more rapidly than any other region. It is projected that the African population will grow to 2.5 billion by 2050.^[1] This rapid population growth is attributable to markers of demographic transition, such as a decline in the death rate, a high natural increase, and longer life expectancies brought by greater access to more effective medical practices.

The UN estimates that the total fertility rate (TFR), the number of children born throughout a woman’s reproductive years, is about 4.7 in this region. This is more than double the fertility rate of any other region in the world. Cultural preference for larger families in rural Africa is a matter of practical decision making. Larger families can provide greater support for labor needs in and out of the household. African societies value children as an asset of social security as children will take care of their parents when they are older. Women are, however, having less children than in the past. The fertility rate is declining like it has in other world regions but at a slower pace. High fertility rates often strongly correspond to lower women empowerment, like access to education, healthcare, use of contraceptives, participation in the workforce, and strengthened rights. The increasing well-being and status of children and technological and economic changes are other key factors.

Africa South of the Sahara is home to the world’s youngest population. More than 70 percent of the African population is under 30 years of age and the median age is 18 years old (compared to 42 in Europe, 35 in North America, and 31 in Asia and Latin America).^[2] African countries have the highest child dependency ratio, a large child population in relation to the working-age population. The population pyramid is a diagram that shows the demographic profile of countries and regions in terms of gender and age structure (see below). A high dependency ratio is a challenging demographic because the smaller working age population is burdened to provide the economic resources to support the needs of the youth like childcare, healthcare, and education.

 

Figure \(\PageIndex{1}\): [left] Africa's population is represented in a cartogram, a map made up of squares to display nations relative to their population size. Each square represents half a million people of a country’s population. Note the most populous nations in the West, East, and Southern regions (CC BY SA 4.0; Our World in Data). [right] Population pyramids depict the population structure, based on the percentage of the population by age group and gender. As a whole, Africa has a high percentage of youth (top pyramid), indicated by the wide base of the population pyramids of nations like Nigeria (bottom right pyramid). In contrast, South Africa's youth population is becoming more proportional to other age groups as the nation's natural increase slows down (bottom left pyramid) (CC BY 3.0; PopulationPyramid.net).

 

Rapid population growth poses great challenges because it can outstrip resource availability and contribute to human suffering. However, in a continent with a history of depopulation due to the slave trade, colonization, and deadly pandemics, the patterns of rapid population growth and high shares of youth can be seen as an opportunity rather than a burden. This is true especially if government leaders can support the hopes of the youth. The African population of college-aged students and the working-age population is expected to double within the next decades. Young people need prospects to study and work. Yet, many African governments are struggling to provide, having high youth unemployment rates and strained universities in need for greater funding. In Nigeria, the population is growing rapidly, and the country is projected to become the third most populous in the world by 2050. Nigeria faces a tremendous challenge with a stagnated economy and a high unemployment rate. This reality will certainly impact the prospects of the Nigerian youth in attaining an education and entering the workforce and challenge political stability in the upcoming years.^[3]

 

Expanding Girl's Education in Africa South of the Sahara

More education of African girls is one reason demographers suspect that the African population will peak sooner than expected. In the 1970s, about half of African children were enrolled in primary school. Today, that number is almost 100 percent.^[4] The attendance rate is lower but also improving in most African countries. This is a remarkable achievement with potential impacts on population predictions since there are few things more influential on the fertility rate than female education. African women without a primary education have upwards of five children, those with a secondary education about four, and those who finish secondary school about two. Africa south of the Sahara still has more girls out of school than in any world region, and school enrollment leans male. But experts predict that for as long as female education continues to improve and expand, the African population growth will slow down.^[5]

The empowerment of education has a ripple effect in other aspects of society. Educated youngsters are more likely to opt for democratic governance and to reject one-party rule and religious extremism. It is true that many students seeking higher education are going abroad. This means that many African countries face a brain drain, or the loss of skilled people. However, expats send money to support their families. In doing so, they increase the prospects of relatives of furthering their education and even attending college. In Ghana, children with a relative abroad were 54 percent more likely to attend secondary school.^[6] The African diaspora also promotes transfer of knowledge, ideas, and technology. Many who return from college abroad become local leaders, assets known as brain gain. Lastly, demographers suggest that if African nations can better support the youth and their aspirations, they may well soon benefit from a demographic dividend. This means that youngsters will soon form a large workforce that can (if able to find work) drive economic growth and contribute to state revenues to further improve physical and social infrastructure. Considering these factors, the aspiring youth may be Africa’s demographic asset rather than its burden.

Figure \(\PageIndex{2}\): Enrollment and completion of primary and secondary remains lower than other world regions, regardless of gender and especially for the poorest children, but the issue was specifically acute for girls. Even as recently as 2000, only 44% of girls were completing their primary education. Twenty-two years later, that figure had risen to 66% and overtaken the rate for boys (who also made gains). While disparity persists in most African nations, especially in secondary school, gender parity improvements have been constant in the region, signaling hope for girls and boys. [left]: Access to Education: What's the progress in Africa? Average number of years of formal education attended by people aged 25+. *From primary to university, rounded data. South Sudan has been independent from Sudan since July 9, 2011. Eritrea has been independent from Ethiopia since May 24, 1993. [right]: Education in Africa: Girls gaining ground on boys. Share of children completing school in sub-Saharan Africa in 2000 and 2020, by education stage and gender (CC BY ND; Statista).

 

Fast Growing Cities

In contrast to other world regions, the population south of the Sahara is mostly rural. About 41 percent of Africans live in cities, most of which are small urban agglomerations. Lagos (Nigeria) has a population of 16 million (about the population of New York). It is the region’s only megacity, defined as a city with 10 million people or more. However, settlement is rapidly changing in Africa south of the Sahara. The region has the world’s fastest growing cities, and the urban population is expected to double over the next twenty-five years. This growth is a bi-product of high natural increase rates and rural-urban migration, or people moving from rural areas seeking opportunities in the city. Urbanization is a global phenomenon and a notable transition not only in where people live but also in ways of living. Urbanizing populations tend to be associated with increased access to higher wages, education, healthcare, and a subsequent decline in fertility rates. The economic prosperity of family members who move to the city tends to have a ripple effect in families. In Ghana, three quarters of the people who left villages for urban slums sent money to support their families back home and overwhelmingly perceived their city lives as better.^[7]

Despite this optimistic outlook, the current growth of African cities outpaces current infrastructural and economic capacity. African countries are experiencing immense urban population growth, at a fast pace, and on a fraction of the economic means that helped the urbanization of other world regions. Much of this rapid urban growth is in the form of urban sprawl, as an uncoordinated and informal horizontal expansion of the city. Millions of Africans do not have access to affordable housing. Africa’s cities have the highest prevalence of informal settlements often characterized by lack of basic infrastructure, sufficient living space, and structural durability of homes, called slums. On average, 60 percent of Africa’s urban population is packed into slums — compared to about 30 percent in Asia and 20 percent in Latin America. Slums are grey areas of the city map: they exist in the city space and shape real lived experiences of millions of people but are not recognized in the formal functions of the city blueprint. In many African countries, most people do not have access to piped water, sanitation, and electricity, especially in rural regions but also in cities. In Nigeria, for example, only Lagos and Abuja have sewerage systems, and even in those cities most households are not connected. In Ethiopia, only Addis Ababa has a sewerage system, and the system serves only 10 percent of the population. Most countries struggle to expand sanitation and electricity infrastructure to keep pace with the rapid urbanization.

 

Figure \(\PageIndex{3}\): This visual collection illustrates the rapid urbanization and high shares of people living in slums in Africa South of the Sahara. [top] This first map sequence shows the share of urban populations in Africa over time. Green symbolizes countries with the majority of its populations living in cities. Note that West and Southern African nations have urban majorities - Gabon, shown in the darkest green, has 90% of its population living in cities (CC BY; adapted from Roser via Our World in Data). [bottom left] The fastest growing cities in the world. Cities with the highest average annual growth rates between 2020-2025. *2018 projection, out of all cities with 300,000 inhabitants or more. Most African cities are smaller agglomerations and the majority of Africans live in rural villages. Cities are growing rapidly, however, and the region has many of the fastest-growing cities in the world (CC BY ND; Buchholz via Statista). [bottom right] Where people don't have basic access to sanitation. Share of the people without access to at least basic sanitation services in 2020. *Defined as facilities that are not shared and include piped sewer systems, septic, or composting tanks or pits. The urban population growth rate is outpacing urban planning and development, and millions of people living in African cities lack access to important urban infrastructure: In Chad and Ethiopia, more than 80% of the population do not have access to basic sanitation (CC BY ND; Buchholz via Statista).

 

Just Transitions? Living on the Edge of the City in Post-Apartheid South Africa

When South Africa became independent from Britain in 1910, independence excluded non-white South Africans. A white minority of descendants of Dutch settlers, known as Afrikaners, came to power and legally instituted the notoriously racist policy of apartheid. The apartheid separated people into Black, white, coloured (mixed race), or Indian/Asian racial categories. It then restricted use of spaces and residence and forced the relocation of people from their homes into designated homelands based on their racial or ethnic background. In 1970s – 1980s, the apartheid regime received international condemnation. Many countries implemented economic sanctions and trade restrictions against South Africa to put pressure and bring the regime to an end. Opposition grew within the country and erupted into violence and social unrest. As a result, the white-dominated government of South Africa began to dismantle the apartheid system in the 1990s. The ban on political opposition parties, such as the African National Congress, was lifted. After twenty-seven years in prison, Nelson Mandela was released from prison, where he was held for his activism. The apartheid legislation was repealed, and Mandela was the first African to be elected president of South Africa in the new multiracial elections of 1994.

Despite the optimism that accompanied the end of apartheid regime and the subsequent approval of the 1996 Constitution, colonization and segregation systematically denied Black Africans access to high quality education and means of accruing wealth. It left an enduring legacy of inequality that is difficult to overcome in less than thirty years. Today, white South Africans have eight times the wealth of Black South Africans, and the richest 1 percent have retained steady high shares of wealth since the apartheid era.^[8] Inequality also remains noticeable in the lack of sufficient water access of marginalized communities, mostly Black populations living in rural areas. In South Africa, less than 50 percent of households had access to piped water in their homes in 2019.^[9] Large numbers of South African citizens, mostly Black and living in the poorest sections of townships or informal settlements, do not have continuous access to safe water.^[10] International human rights emphasize the principles of equality and non- discrimination, which also form part of the constitutional and legislative framework on access to sufficient water in South Africa. Even if unintended, the inadequate access to water by rural Black communities was a core feature of the politics under the apartheid regime. It has not considerably changed in post-apartheid South Africa.^[11]

Many South Africans living at the edge of cities also lack access to electricity. Enkanini – Xhosa for “take by force” – is an informal settlement in Stellenbosch, is one of the communities that struggle with access to municipal services including electricity. In order to remediate the issue, the Sustainability Institute developed the ishack, abbreviation for “improved shack.” It seeks to upgrade existing housing in Enkanini with better insulation and rooftop solar panels that are sufficient to power small appliances like lights, a TV, and cell phones. This energy leap eliminates the fire risk of using candles and paraffin lamps and provides an alternative to fossil fuels. Solar panels are produced locally and cheaply with local ingenuity and national/international funding. Enkanini’s ishacks are a co-production effort that joined knowledge from scientists, policymakers, and residents to provide solar energy as a meantime solution to Enkanini’s exclusion from the city’s grid. It is also emblematic of contradictions: while non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are preoccupied with aligning their projects with climate change concerns, the full scope of including Enkanini as a legitimate part of the city remains unfulfilled. In other words, the ishack is an intermediate effort that pioneers green energy solutions for the poor. But are Ekanini’s residents receiving solar panels as a token that accepts and even perpetuates their exclusion? Residents want more than a charged phone or a light bulb. And while ishacks alleviate immediate needs, residents worry that they do not open a window for full urban inclusion.^[12][13] Full urban inclusion arguably can only come when residents of the periphery become integrated in service areas of their cities, receiving access to clean water, sanitation, and electricity.

Figure \(\PageIndex{4}\): Picture of an improved shack, or ishack, in Enkanini-Stellenbosch, South Africa. The micro-scale innovation attracted the attention of industry and municipal authorities as a way to address the need of underserved urbanites in informal settlements, as they await formal service delivery from the government (CC BY 4.0; Buyanan K. et al via Urban Transformations).

 

Emancipatory Map-Making and Slums of Hope: Lessons from Kibera (Nairobi, Kenya)

In Nairobi, Kenya, most of the city population lives in slums, and the slum population is expected to double within the next decade or so. Kibera is a populous slum in Nairobi that holds over 200,000 residents, a prominent and visible place. A group of geographers traveling to Nairobi for a mapping conference could not help but notice that Kibera was not on the map. Despite it being a major part of the city, official records show that authorities labeled the area as a forest. This inspired the project Map Kibera, a community-based open-source mapping project that began in 2009. The project was designed as a grassroots mapping effort that empowered residents of Kibera to take the lead and produce digital maps as tools to increase their representation and influence. The project enlisted participants to map landmarks and features that would be helpful for day-to-day life. A map of health services or schools of Kibera, for example, can help illustrate the bigger picture of health care and education and be used to face government officials and draw resources. There is also a certain sense of security in being visible on the map, as visibility means that crackdowns on informal housing can be more easily broadcasted and known given Kibera's new cartographic connections to the digital (and international) space. In some ways, mapping Kibera became a matter of empowerment and pride.^[14]

While maps alone cannot deliver urban inclusion, the community involvement exemplified in mapping Kibera is an essential component of any effort seeking to meaningfully respond to the needs of the residents of marginalized communities. Top-down governmental efforts to improve infrastructure within slums in Nairobi are often associated with negative impacts like demolition, relocation, displacement, and threats of loss of land and property. Based on these experiences, residents tend to distrust authority in truly taking interest in improving their lives. But community-based efforts require resources, so a matrix of grassroots, governmental, and international agencies is often needed to implement innovative ideas and improve the living conditions in slums. The Kenya Slum Upgrading Program (KENSUP), a collaboration between the Government of Kenya and UN-Habitat, utilized an integrative approach that combines the resources and structures of governmental institutions with community involvement in decision-making. Like Enkanini, Kibera became a site for slum upgrading and KENSUP projects focused on immediate needs like improving sanitation, drainage, waste collection, security, and transportation in slums.^[15] The pilot project was completed in Soweto East, Kibera, as a "proof of concept" to demonstrate that upgrading the quality of life for slum residents is possible when resources are directed to include community members in decision-making. Recent studies reveal that the perception of Soweto East residents about the living conditions improved dramatically after the slum upgrades of KENSUP, especially in terms of water, housing, transportation, flooding risk, security, and education. This shows that integrative and community-involved approach for immediate solutions can result in effective outcomes.^{[16] [17]}

Figure \(\PageIndex{5}\): The community map of Kibera, Nairobi, produced via the Map Kibera initiative. Note the landmarks of importance for community cartographers: places of worship, entertainment, medical services, and schools (CC BY 4.0; Map Kibera via This Is Not An Atlas).

 

 

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References:

[1] The Economist. (Mar 26, 2020). Africa’s population will double by 2050. The African Century Special Report. The Economist.

[2] Desjardins, J. (Feb 15, 2019). Mapped: The Median Age of Every Continent. Visual Capitalist.

[3] The Economist. (Aug 10, 2019). A booming population is putting a strain on Africa’s universities. The Economist.

[4] The Economist. (May 26, 2020). Africa’s population will double by 2050. The Economist.

[5] The Economist. (May 26, 2020). Africa’s population will double by 2050. The Economist.

[6] The Economist (March 26, 2020). Migration is helping Africa in many ways. The Economist.

[7] The Economist (March 26, 2020). Migration is helping Africa in many ways. The Economist.

[8] The Economist. (Sep 23, 2021). Unpicking inequality in South Africa.

[9] Stats SA. (2020). Measuring the progress of development in SA.

[10] Marcatelli, L.; Büscher, B. (2019). Liquid Violence: The Politics of Water Responsibilisation and Dispossession in South Africa. Water Altern 12, pp 760-773.

[11] Marcatelli, L.; Büscher, B. (2019). Liquid Violence: The Politics of Water Responsibilisation and Dispossession in South Africa. Water Altern 12, pp 760-773.

[12] Redfield, P. (2022). Shacktopia: The Meantime Future of Humanitarian Design. Social Anthropology/Antropologie Sociale 30(2), 16-33.

[13] Zora Kovacic, Josephine Kaviti Musango, Kareem Buyana, Amollo Ambole, Suzanne Smit, Baraka Mwau, Madara Ogot, Shuaib Lwasa & Alan Brent. (2021). Building capacity towards what? Proposing a framework for the analysis of energy transition governance in the context of urban informality in Sub-Saharan Africa. Local Environment (26) 3, pp 364-378.

[14] Visit MapKibera.org for more about their community mapping initiatives.

[15] Meredith, T., & MacDonald, M. (2017). Community-supported slum-upgrading: Innovations from Kibera, Nairobi, Kenya. Habitat International, 60, 1–9.

[16] Mitra, S., Mulligan, J., Schilling, J., Harper, J., Vivekananda, J., and Krause, L. (2017). Developing risk or resilience? Effects of slum upgrading on the social contract and social cohesion in Kibera, Nairobi. International Institute for Environment & Development (IIED) 29 (1). Pp 103-122.

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Attributions:

“Making Africa a Population Asset”, Africa Progress Group Report (2020), CC BY SA 3.0.

“Empowerment of Women” by Max Roser via Our World in Data, CC BY 4.0.

“Africa’s Cities: Opening Doors to the World” by The World Bank (2017), CC BY 3.0.

"Emancipatory Map Making" by Erica Hangen, Julian Stanmanns, and Till Straube in This Is Not An Atlas (2018), CC BY 4.0.

"Living in the Edge of the City in Post-Apartheid South Africa" is adapted from Water 'Apartheid' and the Significance of Principles of Affirmative Action in South Africa by Ademola Oluborode Jegede and Pumzile Shikwambane, CC BY 4.0 and Southern Africa in World Regional Geography by the University of Minnessota, CC BY NC SA 4.0.